Unvaccinated responsible for majority of infections

The unvaccinated are still a major source of infection, so that despite a vaccination rate of 68 percent, there are still many infections. According to calculations, unvaccinated people could be involved in eight to nine out of ten new infections.

The researchers at Humboldt University Berlin modeled two different scenarios.

A high vaccination rate is so important: Scenarios at a glance

Both models include important aspects such as the vaccination rate, the control of the infection process and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In both scenarios, unvaccinated people in particular influence the dynamics of the infection process. The models always refer to a total of 100 infections.

Scenario 1: unvaccinated people account for 91 percent of new infections

In the first of the two scenarios, vaccine efficacy is 92 percent in adolescents and protection in adults is 72 percent. A total of 40 percent of young people, 72 percent of 18 to 59 year olds and 85 percent of seniors are vaccinated.

This is how the infection happens:

  • 51 percent of all infections occur from unvaccinated to unvaccinated
  • In 25 percent of infections, unvaccinated people pass the virus on to vaccinated people
  • 15 percent of the vaccinated infect the unvaccinated
  •  9 percent of those vaccinated infect other vaccinated people with  COVID-19

In summary, the unvaccinated are involved in 91 percent of all infections.

Scenario 2: Unvaccinated people responsible for 84 percent of infections

In this model, the same number of people are vaccinated as in the first scenario. However, the effectiveness of the vaccines is lower, in adolescents and adults it is 60 percent, the protection of seniors is 50 percent.

According to the calculations, this is how this affects the infection process:

  • In 38 percent of new infections, the virus is transmitted from unvaccinated to unvaccinated
  • 29 percent of infections occur from unvaccinated people to vaccinated people
  • 17 percent of transmissions occur from vaccinated to unvaccinated
  • Bei 16 Prozent der Neuinfektionen stecken Geimpfte ebenfalls Geimpfte an

Geimpfte Personen sind in diesem Modell also an etwa 84 Prozent der Neuinfektionen beteiligt.

Vierte Welle stoppen: Empfehlungen

Um das Infektionsgeschehen einzudämmen, ergeben sich folgende Empfehlungen:

  • Erhöhen der Impfquote
  • Effektivität des Impfschutzes steigern, beispielsweise durch Boosterimpfungen
  • Reduzieren der Kontakte, besonders bei Ungeimpften

Der R-Wert, also der Reproduktionswert, gibt an, wie viele Personen eine Person im Durchschnitt ansteckt. In den Modellberechnungen beträgt dieser Wert aktuell zirka 1,2. Um die vierte Welle zu brechen, sollte der Wert unter 1 liegen. Das würde bedeuten, dass eine infizierte Person durchschnittlich weniger als eine Person mit dem Coronavirus infiziert.

This is the only way to permanently reduce further infections and relieve the burden on the healthcare system.

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